Analysts' Perspective

What do Analysts’ Forecasts Reveal about Analysts’ ‘Other’ Information? †

Analysts often provide forecasts of one-year ahead earnings, earnings two-year ahead, as well as long-term earnings growth rates. In our attempts to understand the properties of these contemporaneous multi-period earnings forecasts, we begin by examining whether analysts’ earnings forecasts can be described using the linear information dynamics (LID). We find that LID is an appropriate descript...

Using Analysts’ Forecasts to Measure Properties of Analysts’ Information Environment

This paper presents a model that relates properties of the analysts' information environment to the properties of their forecasts. First, we express forecast dispersion and error in the mean forecast in terms of analyst uncertainty and consensus (that is, the degree to which analysts share a common belief). Second, we reverse the relations to show how uncertainty and consensus can be measured b...

What do Analysts ’ Forecasts Reveal about Analysts ’ Private Information ?

Analysts often provide forecasts of one-year ahead earnings, earnings two-year ahead, as well as long-term earnings growth rates. In our attempts to understand the properties of these contemporaneous multi-period earnings forecasts, we begin by examining whether analysts’ earnings forecasts can be described using the linear information dynamics (LID). We find that LID is an appropriate descript...

Drug Analysts' Conference

A New Perspective on Use of the Critical Decision Method with Intelligence Analysts

Intelligence analysts engage in information seeking, evaluation, prediction, and reporting behavior in an extremely information-intensive work environment. A Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) was conducted on intelligence analysts to capture data that will provide input to support development of a computational model of the analyst's processes and analytic strategies. A hybrid method was used to co...